election_tracker.utf8.md

Live Results

As of 2:37 PM, 292 voters in 34 wards have shared their voter number. I estimate that 209,838 people have voted in person across the city (95% Confidence Interval: 184,845 - 231,769). In addition, more than 346,196 mail-in ballots have already been returned*, and 89,200 are still outstanding.

NOTE: The above mail counts are copied from the state data. There is a lag in the returned mail-ins showing up in that data. Some mail-ins that have already arrived are probably not included. In addition, all ballots postmarked today that arrive by 11/6 will be counted, as long as the Supreme Court does not interfere.

Maps

I use historic correlations among divisions’ turnout to estimate turnout in the divisions with no data yet. I simultaneously estimate (1) the overall city-wide turnout, (2) divisions’ over-/under-performance, and (3) the city-wide time pattern of voting. See the Methodology.

Total Turnout (In-Person + Mail-In)

Total Turnout (In-Person + Mail-In) vs 2016

In-Person Turnout

Mail-In Requests

Mail-In Ballots Returned

Raw Responses (for debugging)

Submissions

Data Tables

For those of you who like tables with numbers.

**Estimated Turnout by Ward**

ward	time_of_day	turnout	turnout_p025	turnout_p975

01	2:37 PM	3080	c(`2.5%` = 2744)	c(`97.5%` = 3375)
02	2:37 PM	4804	c(`2.5%` = 4262)	c(`97.5%` = 5306)
03	2:37 PM	2760	c(`2.5%` = 2266)	c(`97.5%` = 3180)
04	2:37 PM	2724	c(`2.5%` = 2264)	c(`97.5%` = 3152)
05	2:37 PM	7028	c(`2.5%` = 6132)	c(`97.5%` = 7937)
06	2:37 PM	1853	c(`2.5%` = 1564)	c(`97.5%` = 2044)
07	2:37 PM	1688	c(`2.5%` = 1172)	c(`97.5%` = 2100)
08	2:37 PM	6452	c(`2.5%` = 5733)	c(`97.5%` = 7381)
09	2:37 PM	3128	c(`2.5%` = 2664)	c(`97.5%` = 3732)
10	2:37 PM	4026	c(`2.5%` = 3259)	c(`97.5%` = 4586)
11	2:37 PM	1738	c(`2.5%` = 1407)	c(`97.5%` = 2068)
12	2:37 PM	3006	c(`2.5%` = 2478)	c(`97.5%` = 3409)
13	2:37 PM	2706	c(`2.5%` = 2213)	c(`97.5%` = 3131)
14	2:37 PM	1190	c(`2.5%` = 1017)	c(`97.5%` = 1298)
15	2:37 PM	3426	c(`2.5%` = 3078)	c(`97.5%` = 3743)
16	2:37 PM	1441	c(`2.5%` = 1165)	c(`97.5%` = 1730)
17	2:37 PM	3334	c(`2.5%` = 2762)	c(`97.5%` = 3854)
18	2:37 PM	3010	c(`2.5%` = 2527)	c(`97.5%` = 3326)
19	2:37 PM	1369	c(`2.5%` = 997)	c(`97.5%` = 1669)
20	2:37 PM	1292	c(`2.5%` = 1007)	c(`97.5%` = 1512)
21	2:37 PM	7603	c(`2.5%` = 6730)	c(`97.5%` = 8563)
22	2:37 PM	4329	c(`2.5%` = 3587)	c(`97.5%` = 4893)
23	2:37 PM	2438	c(`2.5%` = 2029)	c(`97.5%` = 2754)
24	2:37 PM	2061	c(`2.5%` = 1673)	c(`97.5%` = 2366)
25	2:37 PM	1962	c(`2.5%` = 1559)	c(`97.5%` = 2324)
26	2:37 PM	2937	c(`2.5%` = 2487)	c(`97.5%` = 3166)
27	2:37 PM	3375	c(`2.5%` = 2409)	c(`97.5%` = 4869)
28	2:37 PM	1540	c(`2.5%` = 1223)	c(`97.5%` = 1862)
29	2:37 PM	1554	c(`2.5%` = 1341)	c(`97.5%` = 1733)
30	2:37 PM	3020	c(`2.5%` = 2688)	c(`97.5%` = 3448)
31	2:37 PM	2589	c(`2.5%` = 2123)	c(`97.5%` = 2892)
32	2:37 PM	2531	c(`2.5%` = 2084)	c(`97.5%` = 2914)
33	2:37 PM	1986	c(`2.5%` = 1435)	c(`97.5%` = 2475)
34	2:37 PM	5689	c(`2.5%` = 4870)	c(`97.5%` = 6266)
35	2:37 PM	3723	c(`2.5%` = 3106)	c(`97.5%` = 4188)
36	2:37 PM	4683	c(`2.5%` = 4072)	c(`97.5%` = 5086)
37	2:37 PM	1626	c(`2.5%` = 1329)	c(`97.5%` = 1923)
38	2:37 PM	2819	c(`2.5%` = 2511)	c(`97.5%` = 3060)
39	2:37 PM	5677	c(`2.5%` = 4999)	c(`97.5%` = 6200)
40	2:37 PM	5801	c(`2.5%` = 4740)	c(`97.5%` = 6385)
41	2:37 PM	2239	c(`2.5%` = 1772)	c(`97.5%` = 2620)
42	2:37 PM	2838	c(`2.5%` = 2213)	c(`97.5%` = 3234)
43	2:37 PM	2229	c(`2.5%` = 1704)	c(`97.5%` = 2558)
44	2:37 PM	1830	c(`2.5%` = 1520)	c(`97.5%` = 2112)
45	2:37 PM	2496	c(`2.5%` = 2023)	c(`97.5%` = 2898)
46	2:37 PM	3557	c(`2.5%` = 3111)	c(`97.5%` = 4081)
47	2:37 PM	1102	c(`2.5%` = 932)	c(`97.5%` = 1230)
48	2:37 PM	2571	c(`2.5%` = 2135)	c(`97.5%` = 2831)
49	2:37 PM	3315	c(`2.5%` = 2811)	c(`97.5%` = 3681)
50	2:37 PM	4750	c(`2.5%` = 3849)	c(`97.5%` = 5378)
51	2:37 PM	2972	c(`2.5%` = 2478)	c(`97.5%` = 3420)
52	2:37 PM	3719	c(`2.5%` = 3139)	c(`97.5%` = 4272)
53	2:37 PM	2504	c(`2.5%` = 2021)	c(`97.5%` = 2846)
54	2:37 PM	1764	c(`2.5%` = 1325)	c(`97.5%` = 2141)
55	2:37 PM	2893	c(`2.5%` = 2275)	c(`97.5%` = 3475)
56	2:37 PM	4243	c(`2.5%` = 3464)	c(`97.5%` = 4922)
57	2:37 PM	3706	c(`2.5%` = 3141)	c(`97.5%` = 4141)
58	2:37 PM	6134	c(`2.5%` = 5092)	c(`97.5%` = 6993)
59	2:37 PM	3223	c(`2.5%` = 2698)	c(`97.5%` = 3591)
60	2:37 PM	2561	c(`2.5%` = 2153)	c(`97.5%` = 2909)
61	2:37 PM	3851	c(`2.5%` = 3181)	c(`97.5%` = 4352)
62	2:37 PM	2676	c(`2.5%` = 2076)	c(`97.5%` = 3118)
63	2:37 PM	3555	c(`2.5%` = 3057)	c(`97.5%` = 4011)
64	2:37 PM	2002	c(`2.5%` = 1607)	c(`97.5%` = 2343)
65	2:37 PM	2956	c(`2.5%` = 2514)	c(`97.5%` = 3310)
66	2:37 PM	6158	c(`2.5%` = 5224)	c(`97.5%` = 6807)

Raw Submissions

**Submitted Data**

Time of Vote	Precinct	Voter Number

7:10 AM	5107	2
7:41 AM	0537	24
7:42 AM	0501	14
7:43 AM	0828	33
7:03 AM	2714	2
7:40 AM	1508	38
7:48 AM	1503	38
7:48 AM	1503	38
7:25 AM	0214	16
7:56 AM	3636	33
7:13 AM	0218	9
8:07 AM	4603	27
8:16 AM	0218	60
8:18 AM	0222	68
8:10 AM	1810	36
8:20 AM	3635	57
8:30 AM	3110	55
8:32 AM	0532	69
8:30 AM	2707	45
8:32 AM	2702	48
8:15 AM	3901	52
8:15 AM	3640	64
8:38 AM	3638	55
8:38 AM	3637	31
8:42 AM	0525	64
8:40 AM	0501	36
7:30 AM	0202	28
8:40 AM	0537	56
8:12 AM	4616	41
8:35 AM	3909	65
8:43 AM	0517	69
8:49 AM	0834	73
8:49 AM	0206	69
8:50 AM	0828	77
8:07 AM	0801	40
7:30 AM	3640	31
7:30 AM	3104	29
8:50 AM	0213	25
8:40 AM	2717	56
8:45 AM	2101	47
8:25 AM	3945	52
7:48 AM	1503	38
7:48 AM	1503	38
9:02 AM	1503	92
7:15 AM	0902	12
8:40 AM	2717	56
7:01 AM	0807	13
9:09 AM	4701	73
8:50 AM	0213	25
9:10 AM	1514	81
7:55 AM	1517	30
9:00 AM	3914	40
8:00 AM	5702	60
8:30 AM	2105	91
8:30 AM	2105	91
9:15 AM	2714	51
8:15 AM	2605	56
9:20 AM	3637	100
9:20 AM	3638	79
8:30 AM	0521	92
9:20 AM	0532	112
9:15 AM	1802	73
9:24 AM	2911	62
9:03 AM	0229	95
9:23 AM	0812	138
8:50 AM	0828	77
9:00 AM	3107	100
9:15 AM	3639	86
9:15 AM	0120	76
9:30 AM	0308	109
9:30 AM	0807	98
9:25 AM	3610	84
9:34 AM	0818	50
9:34 AM	0818	50
9:35 AM	0817	107
8:40 AM	1514	68
8:00 AM	0106	69
8:40 AM	1514	68
9:38 AM	6008	49
9:30 AM	3636	108
7:15 AM	0114	9
9:46 AM	3111	104
9:47 AM	0204	72
9:50 AM	0505	92
9:55 AM	0528	148
9:45 AM	0224	110
9:45 AM	0224	109
7:45 AM	0517	35
9:58 AM	3636	120
9:49 AM	2212	74
8:00 AM	0817	100
10:05 AM	1503	129
10:02 AM	0517	135
8:15 AM	3516	56
7:20 AM	2217	17
8:15 AM	3516	56
7:40 AM	2105	45
10:00 AM	0110	97
9:40 AM	0222	97
10:00 AM	2622	82
10:03 AM	3006	101
8:15 AM	2619	77
10:02 AM	0835	100
10:18 AM	3104	156
10:20 AM	4701	114
7:45 AM	0516	41
10:18 AM	0515	420
8:28 AM	0516	70
9:50 AM	0505	92
10:15 AM	3641	78
9:50 AM	0505	92
10:29 AM	0509	188
10:30 AM	1513	95
8:00 AM	2113	13
10:39 AM	0537	108
10:40 AM	0501	75
10:15 AM	3115	144
10:10 AM	4603	60
9:45 AM	1517	101
10:40 AM	0206	115
10:42 AM	0505	117
10:44 AM	0834	93
9:30 AM	0807	98
10:45 AM	0807	115
10:45 AM	1503	147
10:45 AM	0309	129
10:40 AM	3629	76
10:52 AM	1717	90
10:52 AM	1717	90
7:30 AM	1802	38
10:50 AM	2706	156
10:45 AM	2713	96
10:02 AM	4622	131
11:00 AM	2707	86
11:10 AM	3113	101
8:30 AM	0201	103
8:40 AM	0824	57
11:07 AM	6008	67
8:00 AM	4601	37
11:00 AM	2208	91
9:00 AM	0822	1
11:00 AM	2101	131
10:00 AM	0101	79
10:00 AM	0102	90
10:00 AM	0103	136
10:00 AM	0104	92
10:00 AM	0105	45
10:00 AM	0106	93
10:00 AM	0107	40
10:00 AM	0108	89
10:00 AM	0109	83
10:00 AM	0110	104
10:00 AM	0111	86
10:00 AM	0112	69
10:00 AM	0113	122
10:00 AM	0114	85
10:00 AM	0115	139
10:00 AM	0116	68
10:00 AM	0117	79
10:00 AM	0118	121
10:00 AM	0119	75
10:00 AM	0120	106
10:00 AM	0121	130
11:17 AM	3943	119
11:00 AM	1811	150
11:18 AM	4701	135
11:00 AM	3103	5
11:15 AM	0526	175
11:00 AM	5904	142
8:30 AM	0504	105
11:22 AM	1503	156
9:02 AM	0120	63
8:10 AM	0819	60
11:29 AM	0213	47
9:15 AM	0904	69
11:30 AM	3914	140
11:30 AM	4920	110
10:00 AM	3945	156
11:00 AM	0102	111
11:00 AM	0108	105
11:00 AM	0109	89
11:00 AM	0107	54
11:30 AM	0833	124
11:00 AM	0104	120
7:50 AM	4622	31
11:00 AM	0105	47
11:30 AM	1810	140
11:39 AM	0834	106
11:32 AM	0116	99
11:43 AM	0537	122
11:43 AM	0501	99
11:45 AM	2702	88
11:40 AM	4808	118
11:53 AM	0528	194
11:45 AM	1815	121
11:45 AM	1816	192
11:45 AM	1817	193
11:45 AM	0217	111
11:50 AM	3610	112
11:50 AM	0217	112
12:00 PM	3637	153
12:00 PM	3638	118
9:40 AM	0218	88
12:05 PM	0110	127
9:20 AM	0803	123
9:22 AM	0803	125
11:00 AM	0209	104
7:22 AM	0506	9
12:01 PM	0101	96
12:01 PM	0103	164
12:00 PM	2125	127
12:01 PM	0107	69
12:01 PM	0110	127
12:01 PM	0114	128
12:01 PM	0115	191
12:01 PM	0117	175
12:01 PM	0119	166
12:15 PM	1503	175
12:01 PM	0121	160
10:00 AM	2702	65
12:15 PM	4903	216
7:01 AM	1511	17
12:02 PM	0526	182
12:29 PM	3103	175
12:29 PM	3113	151
10:47 AM	1507	1
12:38 PM	1716	80
11:00 AM	6522	121
12:38 PM	0528	208
12:38 PM	0528	208
11:00 AM	0120	127
12:23 PM	6008	80
7:40 AM	6509	22
8:00 AM	4618	32
12:50 PM	0525	121
12:02 PM	0831	123
12:30 PM	3007	161
12:30 PM	5217	120
12:55 PM	4002	146
7:25 AM	0532	35
12:40 PM	0529	58
1:04 PM	1902	128
1:05 PM	1903	72
1:05 PM	1904	81
1:02 PM	2702	100
1:12 PM	0834	113
8:20 AM	0810	66
12:29 PM	3113	151
1:00 PM	3609	112
7:01 AM	2122	20
1:20 PM	1514	117
1:25 PM	3006	141
1:30 PM	3914	175
1:29 PM	4320	120
1:30 PM	0517	194
11:10 AM	3105	1
1:30 PM	2701	119
7:45 AM	4616	34
9:15 AM	4125	74
1:43 PM	1717	115
1:43 PM	0537	130
1:45 PM	0817	166
8:30 AM	2605	76
1:43 PM	0501	133
1:45 PM	0818	88
1:43 PM	1717	115
10:40 AM	1510	121
1:45 PM	1810	188
1:48 PM	3943	160
1:51 PM	3637	170
1:52 PM	3638	137
1:45 PM	1817	238
2:00 PM	3103	194
9:00 AM	2719	1
2:05 PM	4701	166
1:45 PM	2911	109
8:00 AM	0510	63
10:30 AM	3942	90
8:00 AM	4616	49
2:25 PM	6414	114
2:27 PM	0834	124
2:28 PM	1810	216
2:28 PM	1503	202
2:30 PM	1802	139
2:30 PM	2706	220
2:30 PM	1801	204
11:00 AM	0914	46
2:36 PM	1514	125
2:15 PM	3909	158
2:37 PM	4616	153
1:50 PM	3002	131
7:05 AM	2622	6

Download the csvs: - Raw Submissions - Division Predictions

Live 2020 Election Turnout Tracker